They’re eighth in offensive red-zone efficiency, and fourth in defensive red-zone efficiency.īut the biggest reason the Cardinals are unbeaten is because of Kyler Murray. They’re the only offense in the league that’s perfect on fourth downs and the defense has allowed the league’s second-lowest fourth-down conversion rate. There’s been some good fortune as well-their current fumble recovery rate (78.3%, compared to the expected 50%) is not sustainable, they’re the only team to have opponents miss three field goals inside 50 yards, and even if you ignore the historic volatility and flukiness of fourth-down and red-zone efficiency (you should not ignore them, by the way), Arizona has nowhere to go but down.
Vance Joseph continues to fly under the radar as one of football’s top coordinators, and the arrival of J.J. The Cardinals’ formula isn’t that different from a year ago. That’s why the threat of a Wentzening is virtually non-existent, and why the Chiefs will almost certainly be right there playing for a third straight AFC title. But that would require a collapse by not only Mahomes, but first by his supporting cast and his coaching staff, and the thing is: Their receivers can still get open, and their offense still works. If Mahomes meets a similar fate, the Chiefs will hover around. But the broken supporting cast and broken offense was the catalyst for it all. Then came 2020, when he lacked NFL-caliber weapons, couldn’t trust an offensive line that was ravaged by injuries, and didn’t have a coaching staff providing him with answers. In 2019 he played well, but was surrounded by an Alliance of American Football-caliber group of weapons. Let’s review the Wentzening of Carson Wentz.
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Wentzening happens when a once-elite quarterback falls apart and pretty much loses track of how to play football. However, if you think he’s staring down a 25-turnover season-his current pace-then you believe he’s Wentzening. Mahomes came into a league with a reputation as a-if I could use a new football term that I am personally coining right now-“gunslinger.” While the structure in Andy Reid’s offense has reined in a lot of that, he still profiles as a quarterback who could have a sprinkling of 15-interception seasons in his career. The recklessness is the only thing that might be a question mark. The luck will even out, and the sloppiness will get cleaned up, especially as the young offensive line improves and jells. The spike in giveaways has been due to a combination of some tough luck, some recklessness, and some flat-out sloppiness.
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It adds up to this: The Chiefs are giving away more than a possession per game yet are still on the plus side in point differential. has lost a league-high six fumbles-typically, a quarterback will be the top fumbler on a team, but non-quarterbacks have already lost five for the Chiefs this year. With eight interceptions, Mahomes has already surpassed his 2019 (five) and ’20 (six) totals. In Patrick Mahomes’s first three seasons as a starter, they were plus-9, plus-8 and plus-6.
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The Chiefs are minus-8 in turnover differential through six games this season-they haven’t been negative in TO differential over a full season since 2014 (minus-3).
But here’s what’s almost certainly not going to be an issue: turnovers.
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